Iran’s missile strikes damaged 17 per cent  of Qatar’s LNG capacity, forcing a complete shutdown at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG facility, Saad al-Kaabi, the CEO of QatarEnergy CEO says.

That accounts for 12.8 million metric tons of LNG that is no longer available to Qatar’s mostly Asian customers.

“I never in my wildest ‌dreams ⁠would have thought that Qatar would be, Qatar and the region, in such an ⁠attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of ⁠Ramadan, attacking us in this way," he ⁠told the Reuters news agency.

On March 24, Qatar declared “force majeure” saying it could not fulfil current contracts for LNG. The company also said any plans to expand trains in Qatar had been postponed at least to 2027 and likely beyond.

Flaring data indicates that since the cease fire, which ends on Wednesday April 22, some undamaged trains at Ras Laffan’s north site may have restarted, as ⁠well at the United Arab Emirates’ Das Island LNG plant. Production was suspended after the first attacks from Iran. If production has really resumed, it is uncertain with ships trapped where any product would go.

Two aluminum plants in the Gulf region were also damaged in Iranian attacks, Emirates Global Aluminium Al Taweelah smelter was hit by a missile and drone attacks in March, causing "significant damage" and injuring several employees. Emirates Global Aluminum said it will take up to a year to repair the damage.

Aluminium Bahrain, the world’s largest single-site production plant outside of ‌China, was also hit. How much damage was inflicted is not certain.

Saad al-Kaabi said repairs to Qatar’s LNG facility are expected to take three to five years.

Like the price of crude oil, the market price for both LNG and aluminum have been volatile since the war began on February 28, following the ups and downs of attacks, negotiations and cease fires. There are already shortages of both LNG and oil products across much of Asia.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranians and the US Navy blockade has disrupted shipments of both LNG and aluminum.

Ship tracking data shows that five loaded LNG tankers attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday April 18 but turned back when Iran announced it was reclosing the straits. Four tankers were controlled by QatarEnergy, while the fifth was chartered by India’s Petronet.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz means the Gulf aluminum plants cannot ship product nor can they receive raw materials they need. The electricity for the plants come from LNG and the war damage has also disrupted that supply.

While it appears that the disruptions in the Gulf may provide opportunities for other producers of both LNG and aluminum, the outlook for long term planning is far from certain.

While energy companies such as LNG Canada Phase 2 and the Ksi Lisim near Prince Rupert are contemplating Final Investment Decisions, the war has disrupted the market for LNG modules and parts needed to create new facilities. That could mean a shortage of steel and other components, while repairing damage to the plants in the Gulf would increase demand for the components, creating higher prices and construction delays. The costs had already been rising before the war due to increased inflation. The construction of fourth LNG train at Freeport Texas has been put on hold due to the volatility of the LNG market and the possible parts shortage. Energy analysts say that repairs to the Qatari LNG facility could cost as much as $50 billion.

On the other hand, there are reports, including from Reuters, that the German energy company Uniper which up to know has bought 96% of its liquefied gas from the United States is interested in working with the Ksi Lisim project.

Ksi Lisim like LNG Canada and the Haisla Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG have been concentrating on the Asian markets. Shipping LNG from the west coast to Europe would require LNG tankers capable of passing through the Panama Canal. There is shortage of LNG tankers that can use the Panama canal, since most of the tankers that carry LNG are “ultra-large” based on orders by Qatar which up to now has been the largest customer for LNG tankers, which now owns 113 tankers and has ordered another 98, including 70 from Korean shipyards.

The worlds main shipyards for LNG tankers, three Korean companies report there has been no disruption so far in orders or construction of the “ultra-large” tankers to meet increased demand and to replace obsolete inefficient aging tankers. Korea analysts estimate increased North American demand could create a market for another 128 news tankers. Continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could mean that Qatar-owned or operated tankers could be released for the charter market.

The LNG and aluminum markets are facing short term uncertainty due to the war.

Another problem facing LNG in the longer term is that many countries and customers are taking a second look at alternatives to fossil fuels due to the concentration of many suppliers in volatile parts of the world and increasing costs as well as China’s ability to manufacture, export and sell increasingly inexpensive solar panels in Europe, Asia and Africa. The long-term outlook for aluminum is better since it is produced by electricity and is a component in many modern products including electric vehicles which are now dominating the market in many parts of Europe and Asia, while North American car manufacturers so far are lagging behind. That may change if the price of oil continues to rise.