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Alberta Oil magazine describes Kitimat LNG projects as high stakes poker

It looks like the Chinese curse (and journalist’s blessing) “May you live in interesting times,” has come to Kitimat, especially when it comes to selling LNG to Asia.

In the past months the world liquified natural gas market has become more volatile with increased competition across the globe and, in some cases, political factors adding to the molecule mix.

In the past few days, Alberta Oil magazine has published a series of articles on the Kitimat LNG projects, describing the projects as a high stakes poker game.

The point is that the potential Asian buyers for BC (and US) liquified natural gas want a secure supply and they’re not sure what is going on on this side of the Pacific.

That’s apparently why the first project, KM LNG, has put off the final go ahead project from the first quarter of 2012, as originally expected, to the now likely the fourth quarter of 2012.

That has left a lot of uncertainty in town, despite assurances from two of the KM LNG partners, Apache Corporation and EOG Resources that they are optimistic that there will be a deal with Asian gas buyers, even if it means Asian equity in the KM LNG project.

That uncertainty in Kitimat has led to widespread rumours, none substantiated, that the three proposed projects, by KM LNG, by the Houston-Haisla BC LNG partnership and Shell, may be consolidated in one way or another.

At Kitimat council on Monday, April 2, Mayor Joanne Monaghan said “There has been a rumour around recently that Apache is stopping their working for a year and I talked to the CEO, Tim Wall, yesterday and he assured me that that was not true.”

Work is continuing on the KM LNG site at Bish Cove.

This morning, April 5, 2012, Alberta Oil reported that EOG Resources boss still bullish on Kitimat LNG, quoting a company called Bernstein Research that met with EOG’s top executive, CEO Mark Papa, who told Bernstein that EOG considers its 30 per cent holding in KM LNG as a “core holding.”

In a Thursday research note, Bernstein’s Bob Brackett says EOG is willing to sell some of its stake in the Kitimat project to a buyer (likely of the Asian persuasion) looking for equity in the upstream portion of project. “EOG expects to dilute a portion of its stake for that purpose,” Brackett writes.

A day earlier, Alberta Oil reported in Global LNG players jockey for space on a crowded field noting that Australia’s LNG megaprojects are facing competition from North America and cost inflation as the number of projects increase. At the same, US LNG projects are trapped in the current mire of US politics, with many politicians wary of the energy-starved US exporting natural gas.

In Apache Canada makes global push amid fierce competition, the article that uses the poker analogy, the magazine quotes Asish Mohanty, senior research analyst, global LNG, with Wood Mackenzie

Kitimat is due to start pumping out five million tonnes of LNG by 2015, widely viewed as a market “sweet spot” because it beats a number of major Australian projects – among them Shell’s massive Prelude endeavor – into production. “It’s a bit of a race,” Mohanty at Wood Mackenzie says. “The general impression in the industry is that before these Australasian projects start up it’s going to be a sellers’ market.”

Mohanty also looks at the problem of cost inflation and limited resources, a problem Kitimat already faces with not only the three proposed LNG projects but RTA’s Kitimat Modernization Project.

Companies that specialize in engineering, procurement and construction of liquefaction facilities number fewer than 10 internationally, Mohanty says. He expects many of them will be kept busy by construction of several LNG projects underway in northwest Australia, including ongoing work at the massive Gorgon plant at Barrow Island. The Chevron-led venture is due to begin pumping out 15 million tonnes of LNG annually by 2014-15. “All of these are massive projects,” the analyst says. “What that means is order books are pretty full. There is a scarcity of resources in places like Australia right now.”

The shortfall could potentially squeeze Canadian LNG forays. “The fact that most of the B.C. facilities are going to be ‘green-field’ will not make it easy for them to meet a timeline compared to a lot of others.”

Related CBC News Mackenzie Valley pipeline funding reduced

Apache waiting for sales deals before final green light for Kitimat LNG

There was no announcement of a green light for the Kitimat LNG project in today’s conference call by Apache Corp. with market anaylsts and journalists.

Apache CEO G. Steven Farris told the call that negotiations with overseas (likely Asian) buyers are at an advanced stage.

“Frankly we’re somewhat past the polite introductions and that kind of stuff with respect to buyers,” he said. “We’re now in the throes of actual negotiations.”

While Apache has yet to commit to building the $5-billion plant at Bish Cove, south of Kitimat, construction work has continued all winter at the site.

Market analysts still expect Apache and its partners in KMLNG, Encana and EOG, to give the go ahead sometime in the first quarter of 2012.

In a news release issued before the call, Farris, said “Apache’s balanced portfolio and returns focus fueled an outstanding year in 2011, setting records for production, earnings, revenues, proved reserves and cash flow.”
The release went on to say:

In the fourth quarter, earnings totaled $1.2 billion or $2.98 per diluted share, up from $670 million or $1.77 per share in the prior-year period. Production totaled 759,000 boe per day, up 4 percent from the year-earlier quarter, and cash from operations before changes in operating assets and liabilities* totaled $2.7 billion, up from $2 billion in the year-earlier period. Apache reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings* of $1.2 billion or $2.94 per share.

Apache’s oil and natural gas liquids production was 50 percent of total volume in 2011 but contributed nearly 80 percent of revenues because of the wide gap between global crude oil and North American natural gas prices. Apache’s results also benefited from the price differentials between oil prices in basins linked to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark and higher prices for oil produced in the Gulf of Mexico, Egypt, Australia and the North Sea that represents approximately 76 percent of its crude production.

Apache ended 2011 with proved reserves of 3 billion boe, up 1 percent from 2010. Apache’s 2011 production was 273 million boe (MMboe). The company added 422 MMboe, or 155 percent of production, through extensions, discoveries and acquisitions. Divestitures and revisions totaled 113 MMboe. Apache spent $9.1 billion on exploration, development and acquisitions capital, excluding asset retirement obligations and capitalized interest.*

During 2011, with the continued downward pressure on North American natural gas prices, Apache transitioned its North American drilling program to oily and liquids-rich targets in the Permian and Anadarko basins, the Gulf of Mexico and Canada.

Apache, Shell mark LNG progress at District of Kitimat council

Eurocan site at Kitimat — Apache will build the work camp for the Kitimat LNG project at the old Eurocan site. (Robin Rowland/Northwest Coast Energy News)

As the financial and energy markets speculated Monday, Feb. 6, 2012 that Apache Corporation would make an official announcement during its quarterly webcast next week that the Kitimat LNG project will go ahead, a company report to the District of Kitimat Council, released this evening, is a strong indication that the project is a go.

Mayor Joanne Monaghan told the council that Apache has reported to the district that work at the site for the LNG terminal at Bish Cove has been “progressing well” through the winter and was now “progressing toward the construction phase.” Work so far at Bish Cove includes site preparation, building an access road and a temporary dock for the crew boat.

Monaghan said that Apache will begin work on a work camp for the Kitimat LNG project at the old Eurocan site “shortly.”

Monaghan also that the province of British Columbia told her that it estimates that there will be 800 permanent, long term jobs in British Columbia over the life of the projects 9,000 construction jobs over the 10 to 15 year multi-train (phase) plans from the KM LNG, BC LNG and Shell projects. Premier Christy Clark estimated that LNG projects will bring the province $1 billion in revenue. (For Premier Christy Clark’s statement see Vancouver Province Liberals shift strategy to LNG)

The mayor said that Apache plans to work closely with local contractors in general contracting, supplies, concrete supply, logging and land clearing and other supporting jobs.

Apache will be in competition with Rio Tinto Alcan for the local workforce and contractors. Last Thursday, RTA, which is working on a $3 billion modernization project at the Kitimat aluminum smelter, stole a march on Apache, by holding a day long conference for contractors and suppliers across British Columbia, including a tour of the plant, so they could bid on work during that project.

At the same meeting, district council was told that Shell has begun the official transition in its takeover the old Methanex site, which it recently purchased from Cenovus by applying for a licence of occupation at the site, which included asking for permission under district of bylaws to put a Shell Canada sign at the entrance to the site, replacing the current Methanex sign. The old Methanex site will be the base for Shell’s plans for its LNG project.

(This story has been updated and corrected after checking Christy Clark’s statement on LNG which at the council meeting was attributed, in part, to Apache)

CIBC analyst speculates on one big natural gas pipeline to Kitimat as rumours persist that Apache decision on KM LNG will come next week

There is increasing speculation in the financial and energy markets that Apache Corporation, the lead investor in KM LNG partners, who propose to build the Kitimat LNG project will announce the investment decision next week. If the decision is positive, and it is expected to be positive, that means the work underway at the Bish Cove site will ramp up to full construction.

The speculation is heightened by the fact that the two other partners in KM LNG, Encana and EOG, report the following morning. Rumours on the Kitimat announcement began after Encana delayed its announcement by a week from its normal time in early February. (At that time one energy market analyst who follows NWCEN on Twitter contacted this site to ask if there were rumours here. At that time, there were none)

Apache has scheduled a fourth quarter report conference call and webcast from its headquarters in Houston, Texas, Feb. 16, 2012, at 1 pm Central Time.

Apache has always said that the go/no-go decision on the Kitimat project would come in the first quarter of 2012.

The market speculation, however, may not be entirely good news. That’s because this morning, Andrew Potter, of CIBC World Markets, told a conference call that the rush to export liquified natural gas from northeastern BC and Alberta to Kitimat would mean building one or two large natural gas pipelines, instead of several small ones, to reach the terminal projects.

Reuters quoted Potter as saying: “There is no logic at all to seeing three to five facilities built with three to five independent pipelines,” he said.

At the moment, the just approved BC LNG project, a cooperative of 13 energy companies, plans to utilize the existing Pacific Northern Gas facilities which already serve northwestern British Columbia. The PNG pipeline roughly follows the communities it serves along Highway 16. KM LNG is in partnership with the Pacific Trails Pipeline project, which would take that pipeline across country.

The third LNG project, by Shell, is still in the planning stages, but it, too, would need pipeline capacity.

Although there is general support for the LNG projects in northwestern BC, and less controversy over natural gas pipelines, last fall, members of one Wet’suwet’en First Nation house blocked a survey crew for Apache and Pacific Trail Pipelines who were working near Smithers on that house’s traditional territory. The survey project was then stood down for the winter.

The fear among some First Nations leaders and environmentalists is that the Pacific Trails Pipeline could, intentionally or unintentionally, open the door to much more controversial Enbridge Northern Gateway bitumen pipeline, since the PTP and Northern Gateway could follow the same cross country route.

Whether or not Potter intended to stir up a hornet’s nest, he likely has. What appears to be logical and economic for a CIBC analyst in a glass and steel tower, one or two giant natural gas pipelines, is now likely going to be fed in to, so to speak, and amplify the controversy over the Northern Gateway pipeline.

Potter also told the conference call that together the natural gas projects do not have enough gas in the ground to support the export plans. That means, Potter said, more acquisitions and joint venture deals in the natural gas export sector. Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research, quoted by Alberta Oil magazine, also says there will likely be consolidation of Kitimat LNG projects, since there was similar consolidation in Australia.

Apache Corp. Fourth quarter reporter webcast page.

PNG System map — The existing Pacific Northern Gas Pipeline follows Highway 16 (PNG)

The Pacific Trails Pipeline (yellow and black) would go cross country to Kitimat. The existing PNG pipeline, seen in the above map, is marked in red on this map. (PTP)

The Northern Gateway Pipeline also goes cross country, on a similar route to the proposed Pacific Trails Pipeline. (Enbridge)

PetroChina looks to Kitimat as it spends $1 billion for Shell shale gas in northeastern BC

PetroChina has bought a 20 per cent stake in Shell Canada’s Groundbirch shale-gas project in north eastern BC, leading to media reports that PetroChina is also investing in Shell’s planned Kitimat liquified natural gas export terminal in Kitimat.

The Groundbirch “play” in the northeastern BC shale gas fields produces 180 million cubic feet of gas a day form 250 wells.

A Hong Kong website, FinanceAsia, reported that PetroChina is paying $1 billion for the stake in the northeast BC shale gas operation.

China Daily confirmed the story, quoting Mao Zefeng, the Beijing-based spokesman of PetroChina, who declined to give the value of the transaction.

China Daily said Shell and PetroChina’s parent agreed in June to increase cooperation in energy exploration in China, estimated to hold the world’s largest reserves of shale gas. The semi-official newspaper says Petro China is looking to Canada to obtain drilling technology and expertise.

“It’s a continuation of our cooperation in China, and we can learn about shale-gas exploration and production by being a partner in the Canadian shale-gas project,” Mao said. “The project will also bring us good investment returns.”

Barron’s also reported that China is looking to get more experience shale gas, quoting Benchmark analyst Mark Gilman who told Dow Jones Newswires. “They are trying to learn about this business, on the basis of their belief that it will better position them to assess and develop similar resources within China,” he said. In fact, Shell and PetroChina are exploring for shale together in China, so the Canadian deal may be a “quid pro quo” gesture to Shell, he added.

Shell executives said at a meeting in London on Thursday that the company has invested $400 million in shale gas exploration in China, funding 15 wells with more in the future.

Last fall, Shell purchased the old Methanex site and the Methanex marine terminal in Kitimat.

Both The Globe and Mail and Postmedia News are tying the investment directly to Shell’s Kitimat LNG export project.

The Globe and Mail says that PetroChina as well as Japan’s Mitsubishi and Korean Gas are stakeholders in the Shell Kitimat LNG project.

PetroChina’s had agreed with Encana, a partner in the KM LNG project to invest $5.4-billion in the company’s shale gas operations in British Columbia. That deal collapsed last fall after the two companies could not agree on finances.

PetroChina is also a heavy investor in the Alberta bitumen sands.

The deal between PetroChina and Shell came on the same day that National Energy Board approved the BC LNG project, the second one to be proposed for Kitimat. The first, approved in October, is the Kitimat LNG project owned by the KM LNG partnership.

It also comes a few days before Prime Minister Stephen Harper begins an official visit to China.

NEB approves BC LNG, second Kitimat LNG project

The National Energy Board has approved a 20-year-export licence for Kitimat’s second LNG project, known as BC LNG. A NEB news release says:

The export licence authorizes BC LNG to export 36 million tonnes of LNG, which is equivalent to approximately 47.9 billion m³ of natural gas, over a 20 year period.

The maximum annual quantity allowed for export will be 1.8 million tonnes of LNG, which amounts to approximately 2.4 billion m³of natural gas.

A co-operative comprised of natural gas producers, marketers and LNG buyers is a central feature of BC LNG’s export proposal, where members of the co-operative will submit bids to provide natural gas to be liquefied or purchase LNG.

A committee will review the bids and choose those that will yield the greatest margin to the co-operative. Membership in the co-operative is currently comprised of thirteen parties, and additional members may join upon request.

BC LNG’s export model permits smaller natural gas market participants in Canada to play a part in exporting LNG. In approving BC LNG’s application, the Board satisfied itself that the quantity of gas to be exported is in excess of the requirements to meet the foreseeable Canadian demand.

The Board also determined that the volumes of natural gas proposed to be exported are not likely to cause Canadians difficulty in meeting their energy requirements at fair market prices.

The Board acknowledged the potential economic benefits associated with BC LNG’s project. In particular, the Board noted the benefits for the Haisla Nation, including an interest in BC LNG, and employment opportunities resulting from the development and operation of the liquefaction facility.

BC LNG Map — Map showing the BC LNG site in Kitimat harbour (NEB)

The Haisla Nation has a 50 per cent stake in the project through the Hasila Nation Douglas Channel Limited Partnership.
The NEB says the Haisla say the new revenue source would allow the First Nation to support health, education, community development and the many other needs of the First Nation and its members. The Haisla say that business and
employment opportunities associated with the development of the LNG terminal and associated
facilities would be available for Haisla members and businesses.

The NEB also says that the Haisla indicated
that a number of other Aboriginal persons, businesses and nations would see economic spinoff benefits from the development.

The NEB decision says there will be two “liquefaction trains” on barges in Kitimat harbour. The
first train is scheduled to commence in 2013-14 and the second train in 2016-18. Each train will
have a daily volume requirement of 3.5 million cubic metres a day (125 MMcf/d) of natural gas. After completion of both trains, the terminal will have an annual liquefaction capacity of 1.8 million tonnes of LNG.

LNG from the Terminal will be pumped directly into an LNG tanker berthed adjacent to the barge. It will take about 30 days to fill a typical LNG tanker and approximately 25 days to make the roundtrip between Kitimat and markets in Asia.

Talisman Energy Inc. and Tenaska Marketing Canada both have a stake in the project.

The NEB approved the first project, known as Kitimat LNG, operated by the KM LNG partnership on October 13, 2011.

That export licence authorized KM LNG to export 200 million tonnes of LNG (equivalent to

BC LNG pipeline map — Map of pipelines that will feed the BC LNG project (NEB)

approximately 265 million 10³m³ or 9,360 Bcf of natural gas) over a 20 year period. The maximum annual quantity allowed for export will be 10 million tonnes of LNG (equivalent to approximately 13 million 10³m³ or 468 Bcf of natural gas). The supply of gas will come from producers located in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Once the natural gas has reached Kitimat by way of the Pacific Trail Pipeline, the gas would then be liquefied at a terminal to be built in Bish Cove, near the Port of Kitimat.

A third LNG project by Shell Canada, which will use the old Methanex site in Kitimat and the old Methanex marine terminal in Kitimat harbour is currently in the preliminary planning stages.

The NEB hearings on the LNG projects are different from the current Joint Review Panel hearings on the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline. The JRP hearings are a “facility hearing” and cover the entire project, including environmental impacts. Since neither LNG project actually crosses a provincial boundary, the NEB’s jurisdiction is limited to granting the export licence.

Bitumen or no bitumen? That is the question in the pipeline

Energy

On Thursday, Enbridge CEO Patrick Daniel told Reuters that the company “would prefer to supply natural gas to the Kitimat liquefied natural gas plant in British Columbia over any other export project in western Canada.”

That immediately raised a question in the northwest is Enbridge thinking of replacing the Northern Gateway bitumen pipeline with a natural gas pipeline? Or is it planning two pipelines?

So far Enbridge has not responded to a request from Northwest Coast Energy news for clarification.

This afternoon, Jeff Lewis writing on Alberta Oil’s website in Another suitor sidles up to Kitimat LNG says:

No word yet on whether Tim Wall, the CEO of Apache Canada Ltd., is keen to take on another partner for the massive development. (The Reuters report has Enbridge building a natural gas line in conjunction with its proposed Northern Gateway line, which is to be twinned with a pipe for importing bitumen-thinning condensate from the coast; there’s no mention of sending natural gas west on the Gateway website).

But the question still remains. The Reuters report actually isn’t that clear on whether it will be a bitumen pipeline twinned with a natural gas pipeline or a natural gas pipeline substituted for the bitumen pipeline.

Here is what Reuters said.

Enbridge plans to build a natural gas pipeline along the route of the proposed Gateway oil line, which would transport natural gas from Horn River and other natural gas fields to the coast by 2016, Daniel said.

There is already speculation and rumour in Kitimat about the Enbridge announcement. Environmental activists have long feared that there would be a twinning of the two projects, while many people sitting on the fence were willing to accept liquified natural gas but not bitumen.

If there is any truth to the rumours circulating in Kitimat, there may be more corporate announcements after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend that will make the situation a little clearer.

Enbridge buys natural gas plant from Encana

Energy

Canadian Press reports that Enbridge has bought a natural gas plant from Encana, one of the partners in the Kitimat LNG project.

Enbridge buys stake of Cabin Gas Plant in British Columbia from Encana

Encana Corp. has sold its stake in the Cabin gas plant in B.C. to Enbridge Inc…

Enbridge …will buy Encana’s 52 per cent interest in the plant, plus additional holdings from other partners for a total 57.6 per cent stake….

“Northeast B.C. is going to be a very important source of growth long-term for natural gas out of Western Canada, so it makes a lot of sense for us to build a position there,” Al Monaco, who is in charge of Enbridge’s natural gas business, said in an interview…

“We believe there is going to be the need for LNG exports off the West Coast, and that’s simply because the value of world gas prices, especially in Asia, far exceeds North American prices,” Monaco said.

The purchase announcement comes a day after Enbridge CEO Pat Daniel told Reuters that an LNG pipeline to the west coast is priority for the company.

Marketwatch (news release) Encana agrees to sell interest in Horn River Basin’s Cabin Gas Plant for approximately C$220 million
Enbridge news release: Enbridge Enters Canadian Midstream Business with $900 Million Investment in Cabin Gas Plant Development

Egyptian LNG terminal is model for Kitimat project: Encana

Energy

The rugged, rocky, windswept shoreline of Douglas Channel and Kitimat harbour are very different from the Nile Delta, a gigantic flat estuary, so much bigger than the Kildala or Giltoyees, warm, on the Mediterranean, a cradle of human civilization.

KBR, the main contractor for the Kitimat LNG project front end engineering, is basing its planning for the Kitimat terminal on a project it built in Egypt, Dave Thorn, Encana Vice President of Canadian Marketing told an investor conference call on Tuesday, Oct, 4, 2011.

Thorn told the call that plans for the Kitimat terminal are based on the “Seagas” terminal in Damietta, (also known as Dumyat) Egypt, 60 kilometres west of Port Said on the Nile Delta.

The terminal is used to export liquified natural gas from fields in Egypt to customers in Spain.

In 2000, what was then Haliburton KBR was given the contract for front-end engineering and design (FEED) through a joint venture in Egypt, Damietta LNG Construction Llc. The joint venture later got the contract to build the LNG terminal complex.

The terminal is formally called SEGAS, an acronym for the Spanish Egyptian Gas Company.

According to the Wikipedia entry, the output capacity of the plant is 5 million tons of LNG per year. The complex includes the LNG liquefaction train, inlet gas reception area (metering and analysis), natural gas liquids removal and fractionation area, a docking jetty for tanker loading and transportation, LNG refrigerated storage and export facilities (tanks and booms), utilities and supporting infrastructure (power, water and roads), gas metering and treatment facilities (acid gas removal and dehydration), refrigerant condensate and LNG storage (two 150,000 m³ PC LNG storage tanks). The total investment costs of the LNG complex were around US$1.3 billion.

Unlike Kitimat, where the natural gas will come from the Horn River Basin, the natural gas in Egypt is close to the terminal, in large fields under the Nile Delta. The plant is supplied by natural gas from the West Delta Deep Marine Concession Area about 140 kilometres (90 mi) from the LNG complex.

About 3.2 million tons of LNG is sold to Unión Fenosa Gas which has a receiving terminal at Sagunto, Spain. The rest is sold on the open market by the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company.

View Larger Map

In ancient history the port was known as Tarniat, It was later overshadowed by the growth of nearby Alexandria. From seventh to the twelfth centuries, under Muslim caliphs, Diamietta was both an important naval base and an import point for goods from as far away as China. Today, in addition to the LNG terminal, it has a major container port.

KBR, formerly Kellogg Brown and Root has been involved in construction, mostly in the energy industry, for more than a century. For many years the company was part of the Haliburton empire, but was spun off in 2007 and is now headquartered in Houston, Texas.
The company was recently involved in a number of scandals and lawsuits, mainly tied to its role as a prime contractor for the US military in Iraq.

China biggest customer for Kitimat LNG: Encana

Energy

China is probably the largest long
term customer for liquified natural gas that will be shipped through
the port of Kitimat, executives from Encana, one of the three
partners in the KM LNG project said in an investor conference call
Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2011.

India could also be big customer for
LNG shipped from the Horn River in northeastern BC through Kitimat,
Encana said.

Although Japan will be increasing its
purchases of liquified natural gas in the coming years, the immediate
situation with Japan is less certain. While the March 2011
earthquake and tsunami knocked out the Fukishima nuclear plant and
prompted Japan to scale back other nuclear plants and increase LNG
purchases, Encana says the country has still not come up with any
definite policies

Dave Thorn, Encana vice president of
Canadian marketing, who also oversees the Encana’s role in the
Kitimat project, said that China’s overseas imports now account for
eight per cent of its purchases of natural gas. That is expected to
rise to 10 per cent in the next few years. Thorn said there is a big
gap between current LNG contracts and what Encana says is long term
demand from China. He speculated that there could be increasing
demand from China during the 20 years or so the Kitimat LNG project
is exporting LNG. ( As well as projected population and
manufacturing growth, even in a weak economy, China is now heavily
dependent on coal, but is also investing in “green” projects
which means there could eventually be a switch from coal to natural
gas).

The fact that one giant Chinese
customer, PetroChina, pulled out of a deal with Encana earlier this
year doesn’t seem to be a setback. Thorn said that there is strong
interest from at least six unnamed major customers for LNG to be
shipped through Kitimat. “The expression of interest ranged from
simply LNG supply to existing or planned regasification facilities
through to participation all along the value chain from shipping,
equity interest in the Kitimat facility as well as upstream
participation,” Thorn said.

The Kitimat project is currently
undergoing a front end engineering evaluation by KBR. There is a
similar study under way on the Pacific Trails Pipeline that could
carry the natural gas to the terminal. Both studies are expected to
be complete by the end of 2011. Encana expects the National Energy
Board to approve KM LNG’s application for an export licence in
December. Encana and its partners, Apache Corporation and EOG
Resources, expect to make a final investment decision in January
2012.

If all goes as planned the Kitimat
terminal would be shipping 700 million cubic feet of natural gas a
day to Asia when the terminal begins operations in 2015. Encana and
its partners are already optimistic, talking about plans to double
capacity to to 1.5 billion cubic feet a day in the coming years.

What’s driving much of this is the
high price of natural gas in Asia, which is pegged to the price of
oil, compared to North America where natural gas prices are
determined by the marketplace. With shale gas increasingly abundant
the price on this continent has been dropping and that has affected
the bottom lines and stock prices of Encana and other natural gas
producers. Encana is also bolstering its bottom line by tapping
“liquid-rich reserves” (oil and natural gas) that may be found
in the areas where they are currently pumping natural gas.

The Horn River Basin area in
northeastern BC was a surprise discovery by an Encana crew in 2003,
said Kevin Smith, Encana Vice President of New Ventures. The company
then began to quietly acquire assets, either by buying land or by
leasing in the region. “The Horn River resource base is enormous,
highly accessible and will certainly play a large role in North
American and even global gas supply in the years to come,” Smith
told the conference call.

During the June NEB hearings in
Kitimat, witnesses described the Horn River formation as special but
were reluctant to go into detail. Smith said the shale in the Horn River
is “all the attributes for high productivity,” including large
reserves and “overpressured system” which helps extraction. “It
keeps getting better and better.”

As well as going west to Asia, natural
gas from Encana’s Horn River assets will go east to Alberta to fuel
bitumen sands production which Smith said will require an additional
1.3 billion cubic feet a day by 2020, This is likely to be
controversial with the environmental groups and bitumen sands
opponents who have always taken issue with the idea that clean
natural gas would be burned to help get crude of the dirtier bitumen
sands.

Encana says it has developed a “hub”
system in the Horn River where a central well site can use horizontal
drilling to tap areas where once many wells would have been needed.

“Fracking” or fracturing shale gas
requires large amounts of water. As was pointed out in the June
hearings in Kitimat, Encana has tapped an ancient, underground alt
water reservoir called Debolt which allows it to reuse the water from
the formation and minimizing use of local fresh water.

British Columbia is helping the shale
gas industry with favourable royalties in the northeast including
royalty credits for building infrastructure in the region.

Encana, however, is under pressure
from inflation. It faces rising costs from steel, labour and all
kinds of services. While it supplies the bitumen sands with natural
gas, it is also in competition with the Fort MacMurray area for
supplies and labour.